Selling at harvest is a decision, not a default
Holding can pay. It can also cost more than the price rise. Do the storage maths before the truck is loaded.
The four costs of holding
- Storage: rent, bags, fumigation, or space you could use for something else.
- Loss: moisture, pests, rodents and breakage. A few percent per month is normal.
- Cash: money tied up that could clear a loan or buy inputs.
- Risk: a price fall you cannot absorb.
The break-even question
If storage and loss together cost about three percent a month, holding for two months needs a price rise above roughly six percent just to stand still. Ask whether that rise is plausible given the arrival pattern, or whether it is hope.
Sell in lots
Selling everything on one day concentrates the risk. Selling in two or three lots across a few weeks averages your realisation and keeps cash moving. It is less exciting and usually more profitable than a single bet.
Write down why
Before you hold, write the price you expect, the date you will sell regardless, and the reason. When the date arrives, compare. Over a few seasons this record is the most useful planning tool you own.
Questions people ask
Is it better to sell at harvest or wait?
It depends on storage quality, cash needs and local arrivals. If storage is safe and cheap and you do not need the cash, holding part of the crop is often reasonable. If either condition fails, sell.
How much crop loss is normal in storage?
A few percent a month for grain in ordinary conditions, more in humid weather or with poor bags. Weigh a sample rather than estimating.